WDPS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.6S 178.5W
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 373 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 19P (RAE) AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST, 
LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE POSITION ASSESSMENT. DUE TO 50 KTS 
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE 
CONVECTION WAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE LLCC, LEAVING THE LLCC DETACHED 
FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BURST AND LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE 
HOSTILE, WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLING (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET ONLY BY THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON DETACHED CONVECTION, COMBINED WITH THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED FIXES 
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 250126Z
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 250530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 51 KTS AT 250530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 73 KTS AT 250603Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 73 KTS AT 250630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 50+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECOUPLED THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19P IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. WHILE THE
SYSTEM IS MAKING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, IT ENTERS A SHORT BREAK IN
THE WESTERLY JET FLOW MAXIMA. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS AT TAU 24 AND THE TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE COMPLETED BY TAU 36. AT THAT POINT, TC 19P WILL BE
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A 75-85 KTS JET. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM BY TAU 36. ALL MODELS
REFLECT SIMILAR ANGLE OF TURNING AND JTWC TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK 
FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD APART, WITH GFS, 
HAFS AND COAMPS-TC IDENTIFYING A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING, OR EVEN A 
SLIGHT UPTICK IN INTENSITY. DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND, 
PROJECTS A RAPID WEAKENING, WITH THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWING THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY, SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE 
GUIDANCE. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM RETAINING A GALE-
FORCE WIND INTENSITY POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
STAGE AND BEYOND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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