WDPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.8S 174.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 427 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS.
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND A MODERATE GRADIENT WITH THE COOLER DRY AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTH AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER 220708Z SAR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OBSERVED
STEADY WEAKENING TREND SINCE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 220708Z SAR
PASS AND A DROP IN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 220708Z SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 221900Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 221900Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 221325Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 221900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL HOVER AT AROUND 35 KTS WITH
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BALANCED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
COMPACT NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU
36. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BEFORE TAU 36, AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE
REMOVED FROM THE LLCC AND A MODERATE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH COLD ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDER 60 NM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS 10 KTS
WITH ONLY HWRF DEPICTING A SMALL BUT MISLEADING INCREASE IN MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS VALUES CLOSE TO
THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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