WDXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 58.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
   MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) EXPERIENCING VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
(ABOVE 30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MADE EVIDENT BY A
COMPLETE SOUTHEASTWARD DECOUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AS INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, A GENERAL PARTIAL CLEARING AND EVAPORATION OF CLOUDS IS
OBSERVED IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26-27C) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, WITH ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSESSED AS
UNCONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND FURTHER DEGRADING OVER TIME,
THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVABLE IN A 231145Z
GOES-IO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STR OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 231018Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 231100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 231100Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 44KTS AT 231157Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO 12 AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
MECHANISM FROM A STR EAST OF THE LLCC TO A WEAK STR OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TAKE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE ASSESSED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO WEAKEN TC 16S, BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER AT OR 
PRIOR TO TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO
TAU 12, AND THEN TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN
THROUGH TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GREAT ALIGNMENT,
SUGGESTING TC 16S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 00 (45 KTS) TO TAU
36 (30KTS), DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN