WDXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING 
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 113.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DENSE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST OBSCURING A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A 232131Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION IS 
CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HELPED TO SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITIONING WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT 
ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE 
BEEN STEADILY PICKING  UP AT LEARMONTH AIRPORT, AND ARE CURRENTLY 26 
KNOTS WITH A MSLP OF 1005 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 
KTS GIVEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 
T2.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY HIGHER, AND DEEMED 
UNREPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. THE GFS INDICATES MID-LEVEL DRY AIR 
ENCROACHING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SSTS HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 
27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND QUICKLY APPROACHING A COOLER TONGUE OF 
25 TO 26 DEGREE WATERS

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 240100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
PRIMARILY SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LEADING TO A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CORAL BAY.
MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE
STRAIGHT-FORWARD STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
LINCOLN TO MAINTAIN 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH COOLER
SSTS AND CONTINUED INFUSION OF DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STEADY OR WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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