WDXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.6S 68.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 739 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
BASED OFF STRUCTURE ANALYSIS OF TC 14S AND THE SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM
SHARING BOTH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DECOUPLED OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE STRONG (35-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ENALA IS CURRENTLY BATTLING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS IT STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN
ITS TROPICAL NATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC ENALA TO
BE IN UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BORDERLINE WARM (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BLEND OF
MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS A 280048Z
SAR RCM3 IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 280630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION FOR TC ENALA
IS IMMINENT. TC ENALA CONTINUES ITS QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THE
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY REPOSITIONS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO KEEP
ITS MOISTURE DUE TO CONSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO EFFECT TC ENALA AND WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN FURTHER
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A CURVE
NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SENDS THE TC
POLEWARD. DURING THIS RECURVING SCENARIO, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF BATTLING THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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