WDXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 123.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (HAYLEY) IS NOW TRACKING OVER KING SOUND
BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED WHILE RETAINING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS
DEPICTED ON THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC HAYLEY IS STILL IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS MODERATE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 C TO 30 C) WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). HOWEVER, INCREASING LAND INTERACTION IS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR
FIXING OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED DIRECTLY
TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 300810Z
   CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 301330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 77 KTS AT 301330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 45 KTS AT 300946Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 301330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL ALONG
THE EASTERN SHORE OF KING SOUND IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAU 12. A SHARP
WEAKENING TREND WILL FOLLOW DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION WITH
THE SYSTEM BECOMING FULLY DISSIPATED OVER LAND BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND
36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED AS THE LATEST
RUN OF NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE AUSTRALIAN
LANDMASS. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS STILL PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR
THE SUDDEN SHIFT IN THE NAVGEM DEPICTION. INTENSITY SPREAD IS
WITHIN 20 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECASTED
INTENSITY REFLECTS VALUES CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ACCOUNTING FOR TERRAIN INTERACTION EFFECTS AND IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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