WDXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 42.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AFTER EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC ANA HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED WHILE MOVING OVER OPEN WATER. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT -85C AT THE 0000Z HOUR,
BUT HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED BUT THE SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. A 232250Z GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH SIDE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, BUT IN LINE WITH THE FMEE AND THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2
(47 KNOTS). SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C), VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE
AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST AND EQUATORWARD.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 232115Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST
SOUTH OF NACALA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WARM SSTS, GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW VWS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK NEAR 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH
CANNOT BE CAPTURED IN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INCREMENTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 24
HOURS OF LANDFALL.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 00. THE JTWC FORECAST DEPARTS FROM
THE GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY THE SAME, WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE
JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY TREND MATCHES THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE,
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND BY TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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