WDXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ELLIE) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 129.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AUSTRALIAN
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ELLIE) HAS MADE A
SIGNIFICANT JOG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, ENOUGH TO
BRING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE BETWEEN
CHANNEL POINT AND WADEYE, NORTHERN TERRITORY. INNER CORE
ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
BANDING CENTER EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY AND A 221009Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE SEEN WRAPPING AROUND A WARM
SPOT IN EIR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH IT IS CLEAR THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS
CONTINUED AS EXPECTED, IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT
CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.0 (30 KT) TO 3.0
(45 KT) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT. IMMINENT LANDFALL WILL SOON
ARREST ELLIE'S DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER QUEENSLAND

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHORT-TERM DEVIATION
EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. LANDFALL IN AUSTRALIA IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE IMMINENT INSTEAD OF 6-18 HOURS FROM NOW ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ELLIE) HAS DEVIATED
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
AUSTRALIA IMMINENTLY. THIS WILL ARREST THE INTENSIFICATION TREND,
THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS WELL INLAND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER QUEENSLAND IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT ELLIE GENERALLY 
SOUTHWARD OVER AUSTRALIA DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS, AT WHICH POINT 
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 30 NM
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
SHORT-TERM EASTWARD DEVIATION THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE JTWC FORECAST
OTHERWISE LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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