WDPS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 136.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 373 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
AND DEEPENED CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED ARNHEM LAND,
AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
ABOM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 AND
SUPPORTED BY AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) AND MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEED PRODUCTS INCLUDING THE 111622Z 
GCOMW1.AMSR2 THAT INDICATES 50KTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF 
THE LLC. IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 
RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST, AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW. 
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO 
THE SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 111252Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 111740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TIFFANY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND TRACK INLAND INTO
ARNHEM LAND. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH OF WEST
AS THE STR WEAKENS. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU
36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH VARYING DEGREES OF POLEWARD DRAG WITH UEMN
OFFERING THE EARLIEST TURN AND GFS AT A MUCH LATER TAU. ALL MODELS,
HOWEVER, PROJECT THE REMNANT VORTEX TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN
INLAND. THERE IS OVERALL, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN