WDXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (CHIDO) WARNING NR 
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3S 41.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 88 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A CLEARING EYE, INDICATIVE OF STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY SATELLITE
FIXES ON THE REDEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CONSERVATIVELY SET ON THE HIGH END
OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
GIVEN RECENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND 141851Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 142100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 96 KTS AT 150000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 101 KTS AT 142237Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 91 KTS AT 150030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST
SOUTH OF PEMBA, MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS, UNFORTUNATELY, REORGANIZING WITH SUPPORT FROM HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS EVEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
CROSSING THE COASTLINE AS A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, WITH INTENSITY 
DROPPING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CIRCULATION AND ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SOUTHERN MALAWI OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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