WDPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (RUBY) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.3S 169.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO ELONGATE AND CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED AS IT DRIFTED
INTO COLDER SST AND HIGHER VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 141057Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS,
COOL SST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 67 KTS AT 141002Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 141140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC RUBY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12HRS. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF HIGH VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL SST
PREVAIL. BY TAU 36, TC RUBY WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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