WDXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 6.3S 59.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 770 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 02S WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH,
LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE
ASSESSED AS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LISTED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 080000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 080000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 080000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AIR AND
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DETERIORATE THE
VORTEX OVER THE NEXT DAY, LEADING TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
NO LATER THAN TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. A WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LITTLE TO NO CROSS-TRACK OR ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON
WEAKENING STARTING FROM TAU 0, HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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