WDXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 104.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 744 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081815Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES THE LLCC IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DECREASED CONVECTION 
REMAINING ON THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AND
BELOW SATELLITE CONSENSUS THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STR ENTRENCHED
TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 081439Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 081740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION IS VERY SLIM TO
OCCUR AND WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER TOWARD THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE (KNOWN ERROR IN DRIVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR), NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A NARROW 30NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 36. ALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DECAY 
RAPIDLY 
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH 
THE 
JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN