WDPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 166.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS THE SUN RISES OVER 01P, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION NOW OVER 130NM TO THE EAST. A PARTIAL 251603Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES WITH NO REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND
SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING BELOW
37-48KTS WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES SEEMS TO SUPPORT 45-50KTS. FURTHER
ANALYSIS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES REVEAL FINAL T NUMBERS ARE BASED ON
MODEL EXPECTED T NUMBERS (MET), WHILE DATA T NUMBERS (DT) ARE DOWN
TO T1.0-T1.5 DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES. WITHOUT SCATTEROMETRY
OR SAR DATA, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 251412Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 251730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01P (LOLA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
POLEWARD TRACK SHIFT, AS THE SYSTEMS STEERING LAYER BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MORE SHALLOW. NOW FULLY DECAPITATED, THE EXPOSED LLCC
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SSTS. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
FALL TO ROUGHLY 35KTS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA.
BY TAU 36, 01P IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS
THE REMNANTS MAKE LANDFALL OVER NEW CALEDONIA AND ARE INTEGRATED
INTO THE MID LATITUDES AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS THOUGH ALONG
TRACK SPREADING IS STILL AN ISSUE BEYOND TAU 24. FOR THIS REASON
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING DISSIPATION AT OR BEFORE TAU 36. THE SPEED OF
DISSIPATION IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE HOWEVER, AS DECAY-SHIPS
INDICATES FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 16 AND HAFS-A HOLDS OUT UNTIL
JUST BEFORE TAU 36. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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