WDXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 106.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE 
LLCC AND WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE CIMSS 
ADT ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE 
SYSTEM WITH CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, POLEWARD VENTING TO THE 
SOUTHEAST IS PRODUCING SOME LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS PRESENT 
IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 240540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 01S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC 
TRACK INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYERED STR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
ALSO SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING TREND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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