WDIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 52.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 147 NM SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE CENTER OF TC 05A LIKELY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN YEMEN
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND DEEP CONVECTION IS COLLAPSING DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN 240049Z SSMIS
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE SSMIS DATA AS WELL AS A 232147Z AMSR2 PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES (D-MINT, 
D-PRINT) OF ABOUT 55 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND 232147Z AMSR2
WIND SPEED DATA IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 240000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 53 KTS AT 232150Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE LOWER TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT WEAKENS DUE TO PASSAGE
OVER LAND AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AS IT
IS BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TO THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST ANTICIPATES AN EVENTUAL TURN OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE SYSTEM
WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE TO BELOW WARNING LEVEL INTENSITY WITHIN 24
HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AND ARE CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, AND ALL GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN
OVERLAND TRACK FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN