WDIO31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0N 81.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 564 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 03B WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED, OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
A 281642Z 89GHZ GPM GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND THAT 03B HAS SLOWED ITS SPEED OF
ADVANCE APPROACHING LANDFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR 03B TO SUSTAIN ITS STRUCTURE,
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR
PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ANDHRA PRADESH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED APPROXIMATELY 10NM OFFSHORE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 281642Z MICROWAVE IMAGE,
ANIMATED RADAR, AND ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMMS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 281530Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 281700Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 281700Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 50 KTS AT 281659Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 281830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B (MONTHA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR IMMINENTLY, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. TERRIAN INTERACTION WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN MONTHA AFTER LANDFALL AND WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT LANDFALL IS IMMINENT AND 03B WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE OVER
LAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 03B WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL, WITH ALL RELIABLE MODELS PREDICTING
DISSIPATION WITHIN 6-12 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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