WDIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (SHAHEEN-GULAB) 
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.0N 58.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 219 NM NORTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 03B BATTED ITS EYE AT US EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT IT WAS NOT
MEANT TO BE. OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE HOURS THE PINHOLE EYE
OBSERVED AROUND 0600Z HAS FILLED IN, WITH ONLY A WEAK DIMPLE IN THE
MSI AND A SMALL WARM SPOT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED REMAINING. THE
SYMMETRICAL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED AND THE CIMSS TC DIURNAL TREND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE TREND
PRODUCT INDICATES CLOUD TOPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE
COMPACT CORE REGION (WITHIN ABOUT 100-KM OF THE CENTER), INDICATING
THE SYSTEM STILL PACKS SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON POSITIONING OF
THE WARM SPOT IN THE 1200Z ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY
A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 031222Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KNOTS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WELL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T4.5 (77 KNOTS), IT IS BEING
HELD THERE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY MORE
CLOSELY MATCHES THE DATA-T OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SSTS. THE ONLY
CONSTRAINT IS THE TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND DIURNAL CYCLING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 030910Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 031215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SOME MESOSCALE VARIATION IN TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
MUSCAT, BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE
EMPTY QUARTER BY TAU 36. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR AL SUWAYQ, OMAN. THE SYSTEM IF
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 65-KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL, BUT ONCE
ASHORE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE OVER THE EMPTY QUARTER BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS LITTLE TO NO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER AS THE
VORTEX WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER OF THE GROUP, SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN UAE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
CLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN AND THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE
THE MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL AGREES ON A
STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AND RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN