WDIO31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING 
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.8N 60.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 97 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY 
EXPOSED AND QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LLCC REMAINS TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED AND WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY 
EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND A SECOND
STR OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT AND EASTERN ARABIAN SEA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 060600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS QUASI-STATIONARY
AND AIMLESSLY WANDERING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS THE STR TO ITS
SOUTHEAST BECOMES DOMINANT. 02A WILL ASSUME A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 12, PICKING UP SOME SPEED AS IT SHALLOWS OUT AND BECOMES
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ATMOSPHERIC FORCING. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH (30+ KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 02A WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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