WDIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY) WARNING 
NR 038//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.9N 68.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS THE SUN SETS ON 02A BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME
PERSISTENT SHEAR AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. A 151222Z SSMIS
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A LARGE AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE FURTHER INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
SHARPER NORTHEASTERLY TURN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM NALIYA INDIA INDICATES 23KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
(PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST), WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH AN 11MB DROP
IN MSLP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS OFF SHORE
OF THIS LOCATION AND CLOSING. TO FURTHER DRIVE THE POINT HOME,
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION TRACKING
TOWARDS THE CITY OF NAILIYA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, SSMIS AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND CIMSS AIDT (AI ENHANCED ADT)
BOTH INDICATING 55KTS WHILE THE REMAINING ESTIMATES REMAIN LOWER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA AND
A SECOND STR CENTERED OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 150844Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 150900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, 02A HAS TURNED
NORTHEASTWARD MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN ANTICIPATED AND THEREFORE
WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF NALIYA INDIA. WITH A FORECAST INTENSITY
NEAR 55KTS, 02A WILL BE PUSHED INLAND BY THE STR OVER SOUTHERN
INDIA AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE, MAKING LANDFALL IS GAME OVER. THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DETERIORATE THROUGH TAU 24, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 02A
WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 12 AND PROCEED NORTHEAST INTO THE
PAKISTAN-INDIA BOARDER WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. FOR THIS
REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DESPITE MAKING LANDFALL, CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.  THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HOWEVER, WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE UNREALISTIC TREND
PROPOSED BY GFS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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