WDIO31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 84.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HEAVILY
SHEARED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B. HIGH (20-25
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST IS NOT ONLY HINDERING
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALSO NEARLY FULLY EXPOSING THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND IS ADDITIONALLY BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 020330Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT. HINDERING
EFFECTS OF STRONG VWS ARE MITIGATED BY OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 020330Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE EAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 020300Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 020500Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 020530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, STEERED BY A DEEP STR TO THE EAST. VWS WILL REMAIN
HIGH, NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, AND SOON
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SUFFER FROM THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, NEAR BRAHMAPUR, INDIA. 
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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