WDPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING 
NR 062//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.9N 168.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 293 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05E (DORA) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE AND STRONG TUTT-CELL SITUATED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI),
MULTI-LAYER WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY
SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS ROUGHLY DIVIDED IN TWO ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS; THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CONVERGENT, SUBSIDENT AND DRY PORTION OF THE TUTT-CELL, WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER THE DIVERGENT, MOIST SIDE OF
THE TUTT. THIS GENERAL SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP HAS PERSISTED FOR AT
LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH CONVECTION FREQUENTLY FIRING UP ON
THE EASTERN SIDE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT
TIMES TUCKING UP UNDER THE FRINGES OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
CURRENTLY, THE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE LLCC IS ONCE MORE BECOMING EXPOSED, THUS PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
SET AT 30 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T2.0 DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES AND THE ADT.
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND
REMAINS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN SIDE THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 151740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN ARE
EXPECTED AND TD DORA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE ORIENTATION AND POSITIONING OF TD 05E TO THE
TUTT-CELL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FAIRLY DRASTICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, AS THE TD TRACKS NORTH AND THE TUTT SLIDES TO THE
SOUTH. WHILE THIS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR
TD 05E TO INTENSIFY, THE FACT IS THAT ONCE THE TUTT MOVES AWAY TO
THE SOUTH, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN STRANDS TD 05E IN A VERY WEAK
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. HENCE THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A STEPWISE WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY FULL DISSIPATION NO
LATER THAN TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THAT
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL GET CAUGHT UP BY
THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
BUT WILL NOT HAVE YET SHIFTED ITS TRAJECTORY. THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS BULLISH ON THE SYSTEM, AND INTENSIFIES IT TO
AT LEAST 45 KNOTS, WHILE THE HAFS-A BEING THE LONE OUTLIER
INDICATING WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 25 KNOTS, THOUGH EVEN THE HAFS-A
BELIEVES THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
STARTS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE, BAROCLINIC FEATURES. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACKS THE HAFS-A WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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