WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 130.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED TO 130 KNOTS NEAR
271600Z WHEN THE EYE CLEARED AND EYE TEMPERATURES WARMED TO ABOUT
+20C. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM UNDERWENT AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), INCREASING FROM 75
KNOTS AT 261800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE
HAS QUICKLY BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND ASYMMETRIC AFTER 271600Z. HOWEVER, 
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAINED AT T6.5 (127 KNOTS) WITH 
CIMSS SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 120-136 KNOTS, WHICH
SUPPORTED HEDGING THE INTENSITY UP TO STY INTENSITY. THE OVERALL
CORE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED COMPACT AND WELL-ORGANIZED ON ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY, WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CORE AND A
SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED HIGHLY
FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT ERI EVENT. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INITIAL POSITION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 120 KTS AT 271729Z
   CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 271730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 123 KTS AT 271730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 136 KTS AT 271730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 124 KTS AT 271830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 25W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AWAY FROM OKINAWA
ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE. STY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS
UNDER THE JET AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK SCENARIO AND JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE AI-BASED SUITE OF
MODELS MAINTAINING VERY CONSISTENT FORECASTS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS
PLUS. THE CURRENT AI SUITE OF TRACKERS DOES INDICATE A CROSS-TRACK 
SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 96 WITH A LARGER ALONG TRACK SPREAD BUT ARE 
GENERALLY LOCATED EAST OF NORTHERN HONSHU. GFS REMAINS THE PRIMARY 
OUTLIER DESPITE GRADUALLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. 
GFS NOW WEAKENS AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TOKYO PRIOR
TO GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF GUAM IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE ECMWF
TRACKER TRUNCATES THE TRACK AT TAU 72 BUT THE 271200Z FIELDS SHOW
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTEX TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, WITH
THE TAU 96 POSITION JUST WEST OF THE TAU 96 CONW POSITION. BASED ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS AI-BASED AND DETERMINISTIC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHICH INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION DUE 
TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF JAPAN, THIS 
LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO REMAINS IN EFFECT. DUE TO THE 
COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF 
AND TRACK FURTHER NORTHEAST WHEN IT TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERLIES.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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