WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 38.1N 147.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 319 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 29 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 212056Z WSF-M PASS SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE, CONSISTENT WITH THE MSI
PRESENTATION. TY 24W IS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN LINE
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH HAS LIMITED STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR A
BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 212056Z WSF-M DATA AND RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS D-MINT, WHICH HAS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN OTHER AUTOMATED ESTIMATES REFLECTING THE STILL ROBUST
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE
IMAGERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 212130Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 212030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 48 KTS AT 212030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 212034Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 58 KTS AT 212300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 24W WILL SPEED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. ETT HAS BEEN SLOW TO THIS POINT AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINED OVER WARMER WATER AND STORM-RELATIVE VWS WAS LIMITED 
BY RAPID STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS CROSSED OVER 
APPROXIMATELY 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG-TRACK TEMPERATURES 
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ABSORB THE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ALTHOUGH STEADY WEAKENING IS 
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT 
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT TO KEEP PEAK WINDS WELL ABOVE GALE FORCE 
THROUGHOUT THE TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
BOTH ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GROUPINGS AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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