WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.0N 139.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 499 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT 
INNER CORE OF TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DUJUAN). THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP 
SHOWING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE 
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DESPITE A BROAD 
DRY AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FUSION OF PERSISTENT 
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. 
ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY THE BROAD DRY 
AIR REGION TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVE ENTRAINMENT WITHIN 
THE 
CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 190412Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 190530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 190530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 68 KTS AT 190413Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 190610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY DUJUAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 24, 
FOLLOWED BY A TRAJECTORY SWITCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING THE 
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
(ETT) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 72, AND AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO 
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE, IT WILL COMPLETE THE ETT BY TAU 96, POSITIONING 
ITSELF DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. IN TERMS OF 
INTENSITY, A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN THE 
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OSCILLATING AROUND 65 KTS UNTIL TAU 48. AROUND TAU 
60, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE, AS TY DUJUAN TRANSITS DIRECTLY 
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO 
CURRENT AND JUST PRIOR TO A MAJOR INCREASE IN VWS. ADDITIONALLY, 
DURING 
THAT TIME, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ASSIST WITH THE 
EXHAUST MECHANISM. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING 
PHASE DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS, INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, 
AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASING VWS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING ONLY A 50 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF 
APPROACH (CPA) TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER AT 65 NM, PRIMARILY DUE TO A FASTER AND SHARPER RECURVATURE 
PREDICTION OFFERED BY NAVGEM. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN 
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM 
MAINTAINING TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT, HAFS, 
COAMPS-TC, AND GFS ALL SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS 
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC PREDICTION. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 
MODELS 
SHOW CONTINUOUS WEAKENING. WITH THAT, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE 
AT TAU 60 OPENS UP TO 40 KTS, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 55 AND 
95 KTS. AS SUCH, THE JTWC PREDICTION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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