WDPN31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 149.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 227 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTURAL CONSOLIDATION OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DUJUAN), AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING NEARLY THROUGHOUT THE VICINITY OF THE VORTEX, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT STILL DOMINATED BY A DRY AIR MASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WRAPPING OF THE SPIRAL BANDING INTO A CURRENTLY FULLY OBSCURED LLCC PRESENT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DISCLOSES A CONDUCIVE DEVELOPMENT REGIME, SUPPORTED BY HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL-CHANNEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND BENIGN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KTS. THESE STIMULATING PARAMETERS ARE CONCURRENTLY OFFSET BY THE CONTINUOUS ADVECTION OF DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR ENTRAINING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DESIGNATION OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 160753Z SMOS WIND SPEED DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF AN ELONGATED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 161140Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 161140Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 161230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 24W IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING ALONG A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION VECTOR, GUIDED PRIMARILY BY THE STEERING FLOW OF THE ELONGATED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CO-LOCATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROGNOSTICATED TO REORIENT EASTWARD AND RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. AS SUCH, A PREVALENT NORTHWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE COMING 12 HOURS, PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERING A BUILDING STEERING GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, WHICH WILL DEVIATE THE TRAJECTORY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. SUBSEQUENT TO TAU 72, TS DUJUAN WILL NAVIGATE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS PRIOR TO VEERING NORTHWARD, CULMINATING IN A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF HONSHU, JAPAN. TRACK PROGNOSIS UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS AT MODERATE LEVELS, PRINCIPALLY STEMMING FROM THE TEMPORAL PROGRESSION OF THE RECURVATURE STEPS. IN TURN, THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF HONSHU WILL VARY DIRECTLY WITH THE COMPLEX STEERING HAND-OFF BETWEEN STEERING MECHANISMS AND THE RATE OF STR EXPANSION. INTENSITY OUTLOOKS PROJECT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, SUPPORTED BY COHERENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERED DURING THIS MODEL RUN, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, INTERMEDIATE TAUS 36 TO 48 WILL EXHIBIT AN INTENSIFICATION PLATEAU AS DRY-AIR ADVECTION AGGRESSIVELY ENTRAINS INTO THE CENTRAL VORTEX CORE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TEMPORARILY REDUCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY, TS 24W WILL RESUME INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 70-75 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. IN THE LATER TAUS, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS PROJECT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTIRELY ENVELOPING THE VORTEX STRUCTURE, TERMINATING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, JUST PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH. WHILE RESTRUCTURING VWS PROFILES ESCALATE TO 15-20 KTS AFTER TAU 72, THESE DYNAMIC IMPEDIMENTS ARE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTEGRATES INTO A HIGHLY VENTILATED POLEWARD EXHAUST CHANNEL INDUCED BY THE JET STREAK OVER JAPAN. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TRACK GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES IMPROVED CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMELINE, EXHIBITING A 140 NM CROSS-TRACK DISPERSION AT TAU 24 WHICH ENLARGES TO ONLY A 150 NM ENVELOPE NEAR THE WESTERN RECURVATURE AXIS BEYOND TAU 96. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK PROJECTION ALIGNS CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, BIASING TOWARDS EXPERIMENTAL AI GUIDANCE. INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS WELL- ALIGNED REGARDING CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE PEAK AROUND TAU 72 OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, TRANSITIONING TO AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AFTERWARDS. COAMPS-TC IS CURRENTLY IDENTIFIED AS THE PRIMARY DETERMINISTIC DYNAMICAL OUTLIER PROJECTING EXTREME SUSTAINED PEAKS OF 115-120 KTS, ROOTED IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ALONG-TRACK PROPAGATION. THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS GROUP NARROWLY WITHIN A 55-75 KTS INTENSITY SPECTRUM. ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY PROFILE CONVERGES ON THE MULTI-MODEL DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN