WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 115.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 99 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
GENERALLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, WITH AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, STRONG VORTICAL HOT TOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG 
THE DOWNSHEAR FLANK AND WRAPPED UPSHEAR, BRIEFLY FORMING AN EYE 
FEATURE AROUND THE 1000Z HOUR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO 
STRENGTHEN BUT IS NOW CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 
THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED, THOUGH RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
POTENTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE DEVELOPING, SMALL CDO FEATURE. 
ANIMATED RADAR DATA DEPICTS A WELL-FORMED EYE FEATURE, WITH STRONG 
SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL. A 251014Z SSMIS COLOR-
ENHANCED 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND A 
CLEARLY RESOLVED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR FIX DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AGENCY DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN T4.5 AND T5.0, WHILE THE ADT AND AIDT REMAIN 
UNABLE TO RESOLVE THE EYE FEATURE, RESULTING IN AN UNDERESTIMATED 
INTENSITY. SATCON, DPRINT, AND DMINT, HOWEVER, ARE EXHIBITING 
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS 
THESE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM SSTS, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 81 KTS AT 251210Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 251230Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 251230Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 81 KTS AT 251014Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 80 KTS AT 251130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NOUL) HAS AN ESTIMATED 12 
HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL 
MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR REMAINS 
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM 
SHANGHAI TO NORTHERN VIETNAM. THIS SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE HAS RESULTED IN 
THE RECENT SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND THE SLIGHTLY FLATTER 
TRAJECTORY SEEN IN THE TRACK EARLIER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
THIS RIDGE EXTENSION WEAKENING AND SEGMENTING INTO TWO PARTS OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 11W TO TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK 
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CHINA ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE STR OVER THE 
EAST CHINA SEA. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR LESS 
BETWEEN HONG KONG AND SHANWEI, CHINA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, SLOWLY 
DECELERATING DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TY 11W 
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP UNTIL LANDFALL, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
85-90 KNOTS
OCCURRING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, A POINT NOT RESOLVED IN THE
FORECAST POSITIONS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CHINA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
THROUGH LANDFALL. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES MARGINALLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT ALL MODELS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD
TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AI TRACKER WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT, THOUGH
ALL MODELS DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING COMMENCING AT TAU 00 AND DO NOT
CAPTURE ANY NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION AS IT FALLS BETWEEN FORECAST
POINTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO CAPTURE THE NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION AND
HIGHER LANDFALL INTENSITY BUT FOLLOWS THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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