WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 00//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 118.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 246 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
BANDS COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL CORE OF TYPHOON 11W AND
BRIEF HINTS AT A CLEARING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SIMILARLY SHOWS THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE WITH MUCH WARMER
BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES BEING INTERMITTENTLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION
AND CIRRUS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE
ALONGSIDE A 242219Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY RAGGED BUT SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 250000Z PGTW RADAR FIX
AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE T4.0 AGENCY FIXES, HEDGED A BIT HIGHER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EYE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 250010Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 250010Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 65 KTS AT 242041Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 242340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NOUL) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTHEAST OF HONG
KONG, IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 18. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE TRACK
SHIFTS POLEWARD TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ENABLE
TY 11W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UP TO 90 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 12,
SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INEVITABLE LAND
INTERACTION WILL INITIATE THE TERMINAL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RECURVING TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
20 NM AND MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AS 11W MAKES LANDFALL. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BIFURCATES IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS, WITH COAMPS-TC
(GFS-BASED) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING STEEP
INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES MORE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 12 ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEPICTS 
RAPID WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE AT THE TOP OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE 
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE FORECAST 
THEN FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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