WDPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 119.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION AROUND THE CORE OF TYPHOON (TY) NOUL. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE EARLIER 240850Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 241800Z PGTW RADAR FIX IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, BIASED TOWARD THE HIGHER T4.0 BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 241800Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 241800Z CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 241800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 58 KTS AT 241750Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 54 KTS AT 241800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NOUL) HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA. FOLLOWING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SETS CONDITIONS FOR TY NOUL TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WILL ABRUPTLY REVERSE AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, TURNING TO RAPID DECAY AS IT TRAVERSES OVER LAND. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RECURVING TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 40 NM AND MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AS 11W MAKES LANDFALL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS SUPPORTING IMMEDIATE INTENSIFICATION. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY GROUPED, ALTHOUGH WITH MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SUPPORT FROM THE RI AIDS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 24, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN