WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 120.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 11W (NOUL) AS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. THE 240850Z
37 COLOR COMPOSITE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED, BUT
RAGGED, MICROWAVE EYE. THE SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTED BY THE
STATION AT CALAYAN, PHILIPPINES FROM 241000Z INDICATED SUSTAINED 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 31 KTS, GUSTING TO 66 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLUSTERING
OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
VISIBLE IN THE WEATHER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING TREND IN AMINATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE IT REMAINS STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU
24-26, AT WHICH POINT, STORM MOTION MAY BECOME MORE ERRATIC THAN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, AS LAND INTERACTION CAN UNPREDICTABLY
IMPACT TRACK SPEED AND TRAJECTORY. REGARDING INTENSITY, NOUL IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
AWAY FROM LAND AND INTO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. 11W MAY UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN 24-36 HOURS,
INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED BY TIME. NOUL IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 24 AT 85 KTS, JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. 11W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
POST-LANDFALL, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 60.


MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING THE JTWC
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD IN INTENSITY OCCURRING
AT THE PEAK INTENSITY; GFS IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE PEAK
INTENSITY AT 65 KTS, AND EXPERIMENTAL AI GOOGLE DEEPMIND IS ON THE
HIGHER END AT 95 KTS. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS LIE CLUSTERED BETWEEN
70-80 KTS. SEVERAL RI AIDS HAVE MET CRITERIA, SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE THE MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH UNCERTAINTY
STEMMING FROM THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST RI AND THE WEAKENING
TREND AFTER 11W MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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