WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.0N 126.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 396 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 11W WITH A RADIALLY EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) THAT FULLY OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
11W IS CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION, BOTH SURFACE AND
VERTICAL, AND A RECENTLY FORMED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PROMOTES
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON LOWER LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 60, WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 48-60 TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 11W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UP UNTIL LANDFALL,
FOLLOWED BY DRASTIC WEAKENING CAUSED BY TERRAIN INTERACTION. WHEN
11W ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT AROUND TAU 12, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, OPENING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AND A PEAK GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. CURRENTLY, 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A STEADY
RATE WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48 AT
75 KTS, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ULTIMATELY, LAND INTERACTION WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE 11W BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60, SUPPORTING THE NEAR-TERM JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER, AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON 11W'S TRACK WHILE OVER LAND. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AFTER LANDFALL, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS
ARE STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS) CONTINUING TO DISPLAY A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK INTENSITY BELOW TYPHOON-STRENGTH. HWRF,
COAMPS-TC (GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS), AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AI GOOGLE
DEEPMIND SUGGEST A MUCH QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK
NEAR 85 KTS. THE GFS INTENSITY SOLUTION IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO
EXTREMES. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS SOLUTION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATE-TERM FORECAST STEMS FROM THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN WEAKENING
TREND AFTER 11W MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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