WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.0N 124.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
OVERALL, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE VORTEX IS
COMPOSED OF A SERIES OF CONCENTRIC RAIN BANDS, AS DEPICTED IN
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE 102037Z AND 102246Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS STRUCTURE, SUGGESTING THAT THE
EARLIER TREND OF RECONFIGURATION OF THE INNER CORE IS STILL
ONGOING, WITH THE MOST COMPLETE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE MEASURING 80
NM IN DIAMETER. A 102129Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS MULTIPLE
RINGS OF WIND MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ANIMATED RADAR AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE WIND SPEED MINIMUM IN THE SAR IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
SUPPLEMENTED BY THE SAR DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE,
WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES NEAR THE CORE MAY BE AN
INHIBITING FACTOR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK SUPPLEMENTED BY SAR
DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 85 KTS AT 102246Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 74 KTS AT 110000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI) TOOK A SLIGHT POLEWARD
JOG OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. THE MEAN TRACK IS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS 09W APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE, THEN TURN
POLEWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER
OF TY BAVI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A CPA TO TAIPEI OF 125 NM AT 110800Z
ON ITS WAY TO LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA AROUND TAU 18. CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER
THE NEXT 18 HOURS, WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THAT, COMBINED WITH TY BAVI'S
CONTINUING STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE ITS CORE, SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FUTURE INTENSIFICATION AND  RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID
DECAY IS EXPECTED, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE TAU 60.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24, WELL AFTER LANDFALL.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF NAVGEM AND GFS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER LAND, WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 60. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONG THE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, WITH ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A SIMILAR TREND OF GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWED BY RAPID DECAY OVER LAND. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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