WDPN31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.6N 156.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 687 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI) HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SUCCESSFULLY WRAPPED UPSHEAR, AND THE LATEST FRAMES OF EIR SUGGEST CONTINUING VORTICAL HOT TOWER (VHT) DEVELOPMENT IN THE DOWNSHEAR LEFT QUADRANT, CONTINUING TO WRAP UPSHEAR. THE EIR ALSO SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF A NASCENT EYE FEATURE OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) DATA DEPICT A STRONG OUTFLOW PUSHING OUT IN AN ARC TO THE EAST, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING THE ENVIRONMENTAL EASTERLY FLOW. A 021731Z SSMIS 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, CONSISTENT WITH A 021520Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE SAME FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO GET AHEAD OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TREND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL FOR RI, WHICH WILL START IMMINENTLY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ESTIMATED BY CIMSS AT 10 KNOTS AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES SUGGEST CORE SHEAR IS LIKELY MINIMAL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO WARMER (30-31C) WATERS, AND WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF 125-150 KJ PER CM3 OHC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TUTT REMAINS IN PLACE, AND IS COMPLEMENTED BY A DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW REGIME AS THE SYSTEM SYMMETRIZES AND INTENSIFIES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITIONING BETWEEN A MESOSCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A LARGE STR CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU WHICH EXTEND EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 021730Z CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 021800Z CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 021800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 53 KTS AT 021527Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 69 KTS AT 021730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: BASED ON THE LATEST DATA, THE TRACK OF TY 09W HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT, NOW MOVING 285DEG AS 12 KNOTS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM A MESOSCALE STR TO THE EAST, TO THE LARGE STR WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF TY 09W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF JAPAN, AND WHILE THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE TY 09W NORTHWARD, IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE STR. AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS, TY 09W WILL SLOW DOWN TO ABOUT 7-8 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 60, AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ONCE AGAIN, AS THE STR TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PICK UP SPEED AGAIN AFTER TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TY 09W HAS ACHIEVED AXISYMMETRIZATION AND HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL FOR CONTINUED RI FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR AT MINIMUM 75 KNOTS OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. MULTIPLE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) BEGINNING AROUND TAU 60. WHILE AN EWRC IS HIGHLY LIKELY WITH A SYSTEM OF SUCH INTENSITY, THE EXACT TIMING AND DURATION, AS WELL AS THE IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY, IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH ANY FIDELITY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 155-160 KNOTS, WHICH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE WHEN THE EWRC STARTS AND HOW LONG IT LASTS. REGARDLESS, THE NORTHERN MARIANAS A HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 72 HOURS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO DECREASE, WITH THE SPREAD AT TAU 72 NOW APPROXIMATELY 80NM. GFS AND THE ECMWF-AIFS CONTINUE TO MARK THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE NAVGEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN MARK THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE IS CLOSELY CONFINED TO A 25NM WIDE ENVELOPE GENERALLY CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF TINIAN. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DOUBLES BY TAU 120, TO 160NM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE EXPERIMENTAL GDM FGNI AI MODEL THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM BY TAU 120. THE OVERALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE PACKAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS VASTLY TOO LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A PEAK BETWEEN 125-155 KNOTS, WITH HAFS-A BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. ALL AVAILABLE RI GUIDANCE TOOLS ARE TRIGGERED AND THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 90 PERCENT, AS DO THE SHIPS-RI PROBABILITIES. BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RI TO EXTREME RI (ERI) OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED AMONGST THE RI GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF HWRF AND HAFS-A THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN