WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8N 111.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WELL REMOVED FROM
CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE LLCC HAS
TRACKED NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND
THE REMAINING VORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. A 020445Z OCEANSAT-3
OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 10W RESIDING
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OSCAT WIND VELOCITIES
AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINAL WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY THE MODERATE (20-25
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 020600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 020600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 020541Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 020740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W HAS TAKEN A
NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES HAINAN ISLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 12, WITH A LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HAINAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18. TD 10W WILL
REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE GULF OF TONKIN AROUND TAU 30 BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR THE SINO-VIETNAMESE BORDER REGION
AROUND TAU 48. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BEFORE TRACKING OVER
HAINAN, THEN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF
OF TONKIN, REACHING A PEAK OF 40 KTS JUST BEFORE THE SECOND
LANDFALL. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR THE
THE SINO-VIETNAMESE BORDER REGION, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
120-130 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SECOND LANDFALL, THEN RAPID
WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE PERIOD OF TIME THAT THE SYSTEM IS
TRANSITING OVER HAINAN ISLAND, THEN FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE ULTIMATE
WEAKENING TREND DEPICTED BY THE CONSENSUS MODELS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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