WDPN32 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.0N 133.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 326 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 26 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGIME DRIVEN BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 29-30 C, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY A PERIPHERAL DRY AIR MASS CIRCUMSCRIBING THE CYCLONIC VORTEX. SIMULTANEOUSLY, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS) MAINTAINS A COMPLETELY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BECAME LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS INDICATING SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE UTILIZING THE EIR LOOP AND A SHORT EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 252105Z RCM-1 SAR PASS. THE CURRENT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE STANDS AT 55 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, DERIVED DIRECTLY FROM AN AGGREGATION OF AUTOMATED AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES MENTIONED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 252105Z RCM-1 SAR PASS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 260000Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 260000Z CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 260000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 48 KTS AT 252129Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 260030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: A TRANSIENT PHASE OF MODERATE DEEPENING HAS LIKELY CONCLUDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED ITS CURRENT PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. KINEMATIC PROJECTIONS FOR TS 08W INDICATE CONTINUED FORWARD ACCELERATION AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. POST TAU 12, THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD VECTOR, PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE. COMMENCEMENT OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST NEAR TAU 24 AS THE VORTEX BEGINS ENGAGING A MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE LLCC WILL PHASE BENEATH THE RIGHT TAIL REGION OF A JET MAXIMA, INDUCING A DESTRUCTIVE ESCALATION IN DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 36, ETT PROCESSES WILL CONCLUDE, CULMINATING IN THE CYCLONIC VORTEX DECOUPLING AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT AS AN OPEN BAROCLINIC TROUGH. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ISSUED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A FAIRLY UNANIMOUS DYNAMICAL AGREEMENT HIGHLIGHTING A SLOW, BUT STEADY WEAKENING. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 24 AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EXCLUDING THE GALWEM OUTLIER, WHICH INFLATES TO A 200 NM ENVELOPE WHEN AGGREGATING ALL MEMBERS. THE GALWEM SOLUTION REPRESENTS THE SOLE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, DEPICTING A SLOWER TRACK AND BROADER RECURVATURE ANGLE, AS WELL AS A CLOSER PROXIMITY TRAJECTORY TO SHIKOKU, JAPAN. ASIDE FROM THIS DEVIATION, DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RECURVATURE TIMING AND THE ACCELERATION AROUND THE STR PERIPHERY. CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC SYNTHESIZED TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY MIRRORING THE OVERALL MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN