WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 147.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 172 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 08W AS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING IS PRESENT IN
ANIMATED EIR, BUT THE LLCC IS OBSCURED BY MORE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
ROTATION. THE 221147Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KT WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY DRY AIR AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 221147Z ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 23 KTS AT 221400Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO ITS NORTH. AROUND
TAU 60, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD, ALLOWING 08W TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 72-96 AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 
TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY VERY 
GRADUALLY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK 
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 60-72. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
MARGINAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 120, WITH DRY AIR BEING 
THE BIGGEST INHIBITOR TO DEVELOPMENT. IF 08W IS ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF
AWAY FROM THE DRY ENVIRONMENT, IT MAY BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND
THE FORECASTED 40 KT PEAK. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION IN JTWC MODEL
INGESTION, THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WERE PLACED WITH
VERY MINIMAL GUIDANCE. INTERPOLATED HAFS-A, EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE
DEEPMIND, AIGFS, AIGEFS, AND AIFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED TO PLACE
THE TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ALSO CREATED
UTILIZING INTERPOLATED TRACKERS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE VERY
SLOW DEVELOPMENT SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS VERY MINIMAL
SIGNAL FOR A CYCLONE IN GFS DETERMINISTIC OR ENSEMBLE, FURTHER
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ASSESSED WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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