WDPN31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 129.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 437 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 06W CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A BROAD, IRREGULARLY SHAPED, 65NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS, WHILE WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS WEAK AND CURRENTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 300929Z RCM-3 SAR PASS REVEALED MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES (AT LEAST FIVE) ALONG THE INNER EDGE OF THE EYEWALL, PRESENTING A STARFISH-TYPE ORIENTATION. A 301235Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDES A SIMILAR DEPICTION, THOUGH THE LOWER RESOLUTION REVEALS ONLY THREE MESOVORTICES. REGARDLESS, THE INNER-CORE OF THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS A HIGHLY IRREGULAR, HIGH WAVENUMBER STRUCTURE, WHICH IS A PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LACK OF OBSERVABLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. AN UPSTREAM DATA OUTAGE HAS RESULTED IN A LOSS OF ALL MICROWAVE DATA SINCE 0730Z, WHICH IS ADVERSELY IMPACTING BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PLACED AT THE ESTIMATED CENTROID POSITION OF THE MESOVORTICES, AND BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER SAR-DERIVED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 65KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE; HOWEVER, A MID-LEVEL LAYER OF ELEVATED WESTERLY SHEAR IS PENETRATING THE EYEWALL FROM THE WEST, ENTRAINING A WEDGE OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH- WAVENUMBER ASYMMETRIES, AND THE GENERALLY EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE CORE, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NEAR IWO TO. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 301200Z CIMSS AIDT: 48 KTS AT 301200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 64 KTS AT 300744Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 301200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ELEVATED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 06W HAS CONTINUED ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST CENTERED NEAR IWO TO. THIS GENERAL TRACK MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS GRADUAL DECELERATION AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS JUST AFTER TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TY 06W WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOW TO ITS MINIMUM FORWARD SPEED OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA) TO OKINAWA BY TAU 48, AS IT BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STR. FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE ALONG THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECELERATE ONCE AGAIN AFTER TAU 96, AS THE STR RETREATS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD, REDUCING THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING GRADIENT. THE FORECAST TRACKS TY 06W JUST WEST OF OKINAWA BY TAU 48, THEN PARALLELS THE NORTHERN RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF KYUSHU, SHIKOKU, AND HONSHU THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TREKS NORTHWARD, THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE RELATIVELY DISTANT FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE LATEST FRAMES OF SWIR IMAGERY PROVIDE INDICATIONS THAT THE ASYMMETRIES SEEN IN THE EARLIER SAR DATA MAY BE DECREASING, AND THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE EARLY PHASES OF AXISYMMETRIZATION. WITHOUT MICROWAVE DATA AND HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIRM DEFINITIVELY. HOWEVER, MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED GRADUAL AXISYMMETRIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IT MAY CURRENTLY BE UNDERWAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE INNER CORE, COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR, AND THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING (24-36 HRS) BEFORE TY 06W REACHES COOLER WATERS, WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24, BEFORE THE ONSET OF STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING SHEAR. TY 06W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TOKYO BAY REGION, AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL, STRONG-GALE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE CONSENSUS PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE PHYSICS-BASED AND AI-BASED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG COHERENCE. THROUGH TAU 48, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AXIS LIES IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION, WHILE AFTER TAU 72, THIS UNCERTAINTY AXIS SHIFTS TO THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. AT TAU 48, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REACHES 95NM BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE EC-AIFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD ACTUALLY DECREASES DURING THE RECURVE PHASE, MAINTAINING AN APPROXIMATELY 75NM DISTANCE FROM TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 96. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO 250NM BY TAU 120. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD RAPIDLY INCREASES TO 260NM BY TAU 72, BETWEEN THE SLOW GFS AND THE FAST EC-AIFS AND GDM FNV3 GUIDANCE. IT REACHES A MAXIMUM OF 330NM AT TAU 96 BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXPERIMENTAL JTWC MULTI-MODEL SUPER ENSEMBLE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL MEMBER UNCERTAINTY UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, AND DEPICTING A LOWER PEAK INTENSITY ACROSS THE BOARD ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS CONFINED TO 80 KNOTS OR BELOW, WITH ONLY THE HWRF AND GDM FNV3 DEPICTING AN 80 KNOT PEAK, WHILE THE HAFS-A AND GFS ONLY REACH 70 KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PEAK OCCURRING AT OR NEAR TAU 24, BEFORE THE ONSET OF A GRADUAL BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MULTIPLE RI AIDS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER, BUT THE CHANCES OF RI ARE CONSIDERED HIGHLY IMPROBABLE AT THIS TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN