WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT) 
WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.3N 133.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 211 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANGAUR
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE INITIAL POSITION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL BANDING VISIBLE IN A
092159Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. TD 05W HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
ITS FLARING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SLIGHT SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES AND OBJECTIVE AIDS LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), CONTINUED DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND MODERATE (20 KT) MID-LEVEL SHEAR, BUT REMAINS IN
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 092159Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 092030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 092030Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 092158Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 092300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO HIGH WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT
AS BOTH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE DISTANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST INFLUENCE THE STEERING. THESE TWO
STEERING MECHANISMS WILL CONTINUE TO COMPETE FOR CONTROL OF THE
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY ERRATIC MOVEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS TD 05W
AT 30 KTS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND THEN
DISSIPATING NO LATER THAN TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AND CONTINUOUS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: FORECAST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED AND IS
IN HIGH AGREEMENT, WITH A 30 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS NAVGEM WHICH HAS TD 05W AT A MUCH
HIGHER TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
THUS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
EXCLUDING NAVGEM TO ACCOUNT FOR AGREEMENT ON TRANSLATIONAL SPEED.
THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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