WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.0N 138.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WITH ILL DEFINED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111617Z
AMSR 89GHZ PASS CONFIRMS THE LACK OF DEFINED SURFACE STRUCTURE. THE
OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES BOTH MISSED THE LLCC, PROVIDING NO SURFACE WIND 
DATA TO ASSESS WHETHER A DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE AGENCY DVORAK FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T2.0-T2.5, WHILE ADT AND AIDT VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. AS NOTED, NO OCEAN SURFACE WIND
DATA WAS AVAILABLE TO CHARACTERIZE THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS, WHILE THE 28 DEGREE SSTS AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
PROVIDE MINIMAL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THE CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: CRESTING THE WESTERN AXIS OF A
MID-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 111638Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 111730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 111638Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 111730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE FORECAST TRACK WAS REDUCED IN DURATION TO
36 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS TIME, AND TD 03W MAY DISSIPATE 
MUCH MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM. TD
NURI IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST, PROVIDING
A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO FUEL ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: AVAILABLE MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST
VORTEX TRACKERS LOSE THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS,
INDICATIVE OF THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND. PRIOR TO DISSIPATION,
THE TRACKS ARE GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IN REASONABLY
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE DISPARITIES POTENTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE 
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED LLCC IN THE MODEL FIELDS. THE AVAILABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND 
THROUGH DISSIPATION. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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