WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.0N 138.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 90 NM NORTH OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (NURI) WITH AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED FLARING BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KTS,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 28-29 C, AND SUPPORTIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR HAS REMAINED EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT REVEALING
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CURVED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
DIRECTLY TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 111130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 110928Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 111200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION. NEAR TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 25 KTS,
FURTHER ERODING THE SURFACE VORTEX AND INTRODUCING ENHANCED DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK EASTWARD JUST NORTHWEST OF TD 03W INTO TAU 48,
QUICKENING THE TERMINAL DISSIPATION PHASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OPENS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. REGARDING INTENSITY,
SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TD NURI TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KTS
BY TAU 24, WITH A WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER. COMPLETE DISSIPATION
OVER WATER IS FORECASTED BY TAU 48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, UNFAVORABLE VWS, AND A
BAROCLINIC MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH STACKING DOWN THROUGH THE
MID-LEVELS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS TRACK MEMBERS
ILLUSTRATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WEAK SURFACE VORTEX THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASES TO 175
NM, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RATE OF DISSIPATION AND SPEED OF APPROACH VARIES
GREATLY BETWEEN EACH JTWC CONSENSUS SOLUTION, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE POSITION OF DISSIPATION AS TD 03W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDING INTENSITY, A 25 KT SPREAD OCCURS BETWEEN HAFS-A AND
COAMPS-TC AT TAU 24, INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY TO 35 KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, ALL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE A TERMINAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN