WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (NURI) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 137.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 73 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (NURI) WITH A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED SURFACE CENTER OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. PRIOR TO BECOMING FULLY OBSCURED, THE LLCC WAS
VIEWED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CENTRAL CIRCULATION AND FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CURVED
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC.
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED MARGINAL SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING,
WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KTS, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RECENTLY OBSCURED LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EARLIER 110359Z AMSR-2 WINDSPEED DATA,
SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
DIRECTLY TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 110530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 110530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 110627Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 110630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 48
HOURS DUE TO THE WIND FIELD BECOMING HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC BETWEEN TAU
36 AND TAU 48 THROUGH INTERACTION WITH A COOLER AIR MASS WEDGED
AGAINST THE SYSTEMS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL ERODE THE SURFACE VORTEX, OPENING THE LLCC INTO AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE VWS, QUICKENING THE TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LARGELY UNFAVORABLE. REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF
TD 03W, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UP TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36 AS THE
VORTEX GRADUALLY ALIGNS VERTICALLY WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
FOLLOWING TAU 36, SURFACE INTENSITIES WILL WEAKEN TOWARD 25 KTS AS
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FAILS TO MAINTAIN A CONSOLIDATED STRUCTURE
WITH DUE TO ENHANCED VWS ABOVE 25 KTS AND MID-LEVEL DRY-AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATING A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC TRACKS (GFS AND JGSM)
CHARACTERIZE A LOSS IN THE SURFACE VORTEX INTO TAU 48 DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WHILE NAVGEM AND GALWEM
CONTINUE THE TRACK FOR TD NURI NORTHEASTWARD, PAST THE MARIANAS.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
REGARDING INTENSITY, STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO ILLUSTRATE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36, WITH
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AND ALIGNED JUST UNDER THE JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS, NEAR HAFS-A AND THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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