WDPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) 
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 149.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 260 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 24P WITH AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 C AND 30 C, AND WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY OF THE LLCC, CONSISTENT
WITH 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041431Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PATTERNS OVER
AUSTRALIA AND SOUTH PACIFIC

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   ABRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 041536Z
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 041730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 041730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 041729Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 041830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P WILL CONTINUE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CURRENT DEEP-LAYER STR DRIVES THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE EASTERN QUEENSLAND NEAR TAU 36. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTEX LACKS SUFFICIENT
OUTFLOW AND ONLY 24-48 HOURS REMAIN FOR THE VORTEX TO REMAIN OVER 
SUPPORTIVE AND WARM OCEAN WATERS. 24P WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT INTENSITY 
UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 24 WHEN THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES LAND AND 
BEGINS WEAKENING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS. THE CIRCULATION IS 
FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS DECREASED WITH GFS NOW THE ONLY OUTLYING SOLUTION,
DEPICTING A TRACK THAT SCRAPES THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST AND 
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS 
PLACED BETWEEN THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS AND AI SOLUTIONS WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERALLY STEADY 
INTENSITIES  UNTIL THE CIRCULATION BEGINS INTERACTING WITH 
TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES IN EASTERN QUEENSLAND, AND WEAKENING BETWEEN 
TAU 24 AND 48. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE 
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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