WDPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 150.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24P WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
A 040617Z F18 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, VOID OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE CONVECTION IS MEASURED TO BE
OFFSET OVER 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
EASTERLY SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 040600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 040600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 040617Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 040600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 24P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE
TAU 48, SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LARGE THROUGHOUT ITS APPROACH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ONLY MARGINALLY INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40 KTS DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE
OF THE WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION
AS IT TRAVERSES FURTHER INLAND. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO
LATER THAN TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, GALWEM AND UKMET,
WHICH TRACK THE VORTEX SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN THE
REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIERS, THERE IS A 190 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE
WEAKENING. HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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