WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (PENHA) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.8N 124.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (PENHA) RAPIDLY LOSING STRUCTURE AS IT WRESTLES
WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 C TO 28 C), HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), AND POOR OUTFLOW WHILE TRANSITING ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF MINDANAO AS WELL AS AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND 
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, SUPPORTED BY SURFACE BASED 
OBSERVATIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS AIDT: 47 KTS AT 060110Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 060130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC RETREATS TO THE 
EAST. DEGRADATION OF THE STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE AS COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 C TO 28 C) WITHIN THE SULU SEA, HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), POOR OUTFLOW, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY 
AIR BREAK DOWN THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST REFLECTS A 
SLOW TRANSIT BARELY HOLDING 30 KT INTENSITY BEFORE COLD SURGE PUSHING 
IN FROM THE NORTH BREAKS OPEN WHAT REMAINS OF THE CIRCULATION CAUSING 
TD 02W TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS 60
NM AT TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY SPREAD IS AROUND 10 
KTS THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELING KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT A WEAK 30 
KT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE JTWC 
FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS VALUES CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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