WDPN31 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 8.7N 132.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 768 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO) REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC AS IT UNDERGOES SLOW CONSOLIDATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED, MULTI-VORTEX STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TRANSIENT CONVECTION FLARING ALONG A CONVERGENT INFLOW LINE ORIGINATING NORTHWEST OF PALAU AND EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED RADIALLY BY APPROXIMATELY 75-100NM AND LACKS ORGANIZED BANDING. A 040337Z OSCAT-3 PASS VALIDATED THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WITH ISOLATED 35 KNOT WINDS UNDER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE GRADIENT. SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OSCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) PROVIDE SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED EAST OF TAIWAN. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 040600Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 040530Z CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 040133Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 040540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND MISALIGNED VORTEX. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE ADOPTING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STR EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRACK RECURVES NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MINDANAO BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, TRANSVERSE THE BOHOL SEA THROUGH TAU 48, AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN SULU SEA BY TAU 72. TRANSLATION SPEEDS WILL DECELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STEERING RIDGE ERODES AND MOVES EASTWARD, REDUCING THE STEERING GRADIENT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PALAWAN OR THE LINAPACAN STRAIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96, WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INTENSIFYING NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. REGARDING INTENSITY, VWS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH MARGINALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, FACILITATING MODEST INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO LANDFALL AND THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE VORTEX WILL INHIBIT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40- 45 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE, OROGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO WILL DISRUPT THE LOW- LEVEL STRUCTURE, RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TD STRENGTH DURING ITS ARCHIPELAGIC TRANSIT. SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONSET BY TAU 72, AS IT MOVES PAST PALAWAN AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS ARE IN TIGHT CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK GEOMETRY, WITH ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT NAVGEM CONFINED TO A 100NM ENVELOPE. NAVGEM ERRONEOUSLY FORECASTS A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE EAST OF MANILA BY TAU 96 AND HAS BEEN EXCLUDED FROM THE CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS WITH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT, DEPICTING A CHAOTIC OUTLOOK WITH MODELS PROJECTING CONFLICTING TRENDS. COLLECTIVELY, NO MODEL SIMULATES A PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 45 KNOTS, AND THE GENERAL TREND IS WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. CTCX AND HAFS-A ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE REPRESENTATIONS, WHILE SHIPS-GFS REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN AT TAU 24, THEN STAYS BELOW THE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH LATE-PERIOD DISSIPATION INDICATED BY SHIPS. DUE TO HIGH VARIANCE IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE IMPACT OF LAND INTERACTIONS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN