WDPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.2S 172.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 353 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON ISLAND.
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A SINGLE AREA OF INTERMITTENT AND SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED, EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS CONTINUED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 26-27 C, MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 15 KTS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING
AROUND THE CENTRAL VORTEX FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
BEEN PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM AN EARLIER 220708Z RCM-2 PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   PHFO: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 221018Z
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 221130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 221130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 24 KTS AT 221115Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 221230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BECOMING EASTWARD
THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTH. REGARDING INTENSITY,
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN TC 16P NEAR 40 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COMPETES WITH
RELATIVELY LOW VWS OF LESS THAN 15 KTS AND WARM SST BETWEEN 26-27
C. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TOWARD 35 KTS AS DRY
AIR ERODES THE CENTRAL VORTEX INTO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 58
NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALIGNED
CLOSELY WITH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, JTWC
CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A SPREAD OF 15 KTS, WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WEAKENING TOWARD 30 KTS BY TAU 12, WHERE
COAMPS-TC AND HAFS MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS EXPECT A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TREND TOWARD 40 KTS BY TAU 12. FOLLOWING TAU 24,
ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A GRADUAL DISSIPATION
TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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