WDPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.5S 169.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS KEPT
SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL,
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-27 C), AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC, OBSERVED ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES BELOW 30 KTS AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 27 KTS TO 35 KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 220301Z
   CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 220530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 220530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 220212Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 220600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDING INTENSITY, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 35 KTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SUPPORT FROM WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 26 C AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15
KTS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, TC 16P WILL SUCCUMB TO THE EXCESSIVE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, TC 16P IS FORECASTED TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE OVER WATER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK
BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED JUST SOUTH OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS. REGARDING
INTENSITY, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ILLUSTRATE STEADY
INTENSITIES NEAR 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, AS
THE VORTEX ELONGATES AND IS NEGATIVELY INFLUENCED BY PERSISTENT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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