WDPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.5S 166.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 95 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 16P HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING TIGHTLY WRAPPED BUT
LARGELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXPOSED CENTER EVIDENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
FROM 212113Z AND 212152Z.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 212113Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 212030Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 212030Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 212300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LIMITED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER, SLOW
AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH TIGHT PACKING IN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH TAU 24 AND JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SPREAD BY TAU 36 DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE STEERING RIDGE
ORIENTATION. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS
MEAN AND PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS, WHICH HAVE REMAINED STEADY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH NO NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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