WDPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.1S 161.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 334 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16P WITH A WELL-DEFINED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED EXPOSED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. BURSTS OF
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY FLARING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 210310Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALED CURVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE
FROM EARLIER ASCAT IMAGERY AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 16P IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR FIJI. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 210610Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 210610Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 37 KTS AT 210233Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 37 KTS AT 210610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 24. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 16P STAYING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
CALEDONIA, BUT ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD ALLOW FOR
A DIRECT LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. REGARDING
INTENSITY, 16P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12
UNDER SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THE SYSTEM MANAGES
TO INTERACT MORE WITH NEW CALEDONIA, THEN A MORE RAPID WEAKENING
TREND WOULD BE EXPECTED. AFTER TAU 12, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
MODERATE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENGULFED BY
DRY AIR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS PRESENT. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS AROUND 120 NM,
WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12-24 BEFORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR OUTLIER, AND CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
AFTER TAU 24 RATHER THAN WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A AND HWRF MODELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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