WDXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING 
NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.9S 58.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 179 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DUDZAI) CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
RAPIDLY TRACKS POLEWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS AND LA
REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
REINVIGORATED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 192052Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTED A STRONG MICROWAVE EYE AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE AS WELL AS THE DEFINED LLCC IN THE EIR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
HIGHER END OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, WITH LOW, BUT
INCREASING, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINAL SSTS (27-28C) AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 192230Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 192330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 192330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 192107Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 192330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRUNCATED TO 36
HOURS. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 18 AND THEN BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS, AND
WILL BE OFFSET BY EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE POLAR
FRONT JET, MOVES INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROF AND BEGINS TO MERGE
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. FULL TRANSITION TO A STORM-FORCE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT,
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EITHER CROSS- OR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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